I remember, in the aftermath of the 2014 midterms, having a conversation among friends, where we each tried to design our perfect presidential candidate.
Not to pick a person, mind you, but to detail the background, experience, personality, judgement and record of someone who we believed could be ready on Day #1 to begin the massive task of undoing Obamaism and leading the country to a brighter, more prosperous path.
For me, the ideal candidate would be a governor, sitting or former, the larger and more diverse the state the better. In America, gubernatorial experience is as close as you get to the massive responsibilities of the presidency. Setting an agenda, submitting bills to the legislature and navigating the petty and profound special interests that are always involved in public administration. Managing the regulatory state, and ultimately catalyzing the changes that improve lives and prosperity. To stand as the tip of the arrow, implementing principles that are larger than any one candidate or office holder.
I would want someone with a variety of life experiences. Someone who had worked in the private sector, and had seen the real life, day-to-day impact of government on business. To have internalized the lesson that even the most well-meaning public policy can have impacts on the economy that retard growth and inhibit potential. Someone who had traveled widely and seen both our country and other countries, to appreciate differences and distinctions in values and cultures.
A candidate with careful judgement, who is immediately the center of gravity when an unexpected crisis erupts; a firm hand on the tiller in choppy waters. An incisive mind, capable of disciplined deliberation to find the best solution, bringing together the best minds to create the best outcomes.
The right candidate would have to have impeccable integrity and trustworthiness. To display a humility and agreeableness in all dealings and all parties, but coupled with a fiery courage and a backbone of steel to fight for principles. Ideally, a gubernatorial record would reflect that commitment with tangible achievements, which could be measured against candidate platforms as they sought the presidency.
I’d want a political warrior who not only had a record of legislative victories, but the ability to create new coalitions that lead to decisive election victories. Someone who is relentless in the face of overwhelming odds and emerges the victor.
There was only one possible candidate in the lead up to 2016 that had all those qualities.
Jeb Bush.
Readers of this blog know I served in the presidential administrations of Bush 41 and 43. And that by implication, Jeb would be my first and only choice as a result. The fact is that it is happenstance that the third Bush to seek the White House fits my criteria so perfectly. More than once in the last year, I’d wished his name was Jones or Smith, just so he could get a fair shake on his own record and accomplishments.
I’m writing this now, because of the consequence of the South Carolina primary. A voter infatuation with emotional indulgence – ironically caused by Obama, not Republican policies – may irreparably damage the one candidate in the race who is truly ready on Day #1 to staunch the Obama-inspired bleeding and restore America to a place of economic prosperity and national security safety. So I lay out the case here, according to my own criteria.
Bush was governor of Florida from 1999-2007. It’s the third largest state by population, with the fourth largest economy. At the time Bush left office in 2007, Florida’s economy would have been the 18th largest in the world, with diverse sectors in tourism, agriculture, mining and ship building.
We have heard Bush discuss his record on the trail but many elements are worth repeating. Eight balanced budgets. Reduced taxes by $19 billion. Vetoed $2 billion in new spending. Reduced the state workforce by 11 percent, removing special workplace protections for 11,000 civil service positions so that those incumbents could be held accountable for their performance. Crucial to the state’s fiscal integrity, Bush increased the state’s reserves from $1.3 billion to $9.8 billion – while reducing state spending – which resulted in the highest bond rating possible, and insulating Floridians against a sudden tax increase in the event of an economic downturn.
The result? Between 1999 and 2007, the GDP of the state of Florida increased 30 percent. Bush downsized government and right-sized opportunity, to bring a higher level of prosperity for Floridians.
But that is only part of the story.
Bush championed education reform that resulted in tangible results during his term. In 2005, 4th grade reading scores increased by 11 percent as opposed to a 2.5 percent increase for the nation. Bush also championed medical malpractice reform and Medicaid reform. When opponents amended the Florida constitution to require a budget-busting $9 billion high speed rail project that Bush opposed, Bush went to the mat in 2004 to have the amendment repealed, and won.
When Jeb Bush departed the governor’s office in 2007, he left his successors a vastly better state than he had inherited in 1999. In so doing, he created an impressive record of conservative governance which stands, unchallenged, to this day.
Unlike others in the race, Bush had a wide and varied life before going into public service. While in high school, he went to Mexico to teach English as a second language. He went to the University of Texas instead of Yale, where his father and older brother attended.
Bush has substantial private sector and international experience. Jeb started out in banking in Texas, and was later assigned to live in and manage bank operations in Venezuela. I can tell you from first-hand experience, having lived in Vietnam for four years, that there is nothing in America that prepares you to be an expat, and that this experience not only deepens and clarifies your love of America, but opens new perspectives in critical thinking on culture and values that is just not available through contemporary experience in the US.
And it might surprise many to learn that Donald Trump isn’t the only real estate developer in the race. In the early 80s, Bush was part of one of the most successful real estate development firms in Florida. He was also an entrepreneur, investing in small businesses in a variety of projects. This was all critical contextual experience that provides the framework for Bush’s later governance in Florida.
But experience counts for little unless there is judgement and perspective. This Bush showed in his cool and highly complimented response to eight hurricanes that hit Florida in 2004 and 2005. In contrast with FEMA on the national level, Bush’s emergency response team capably managed these cascading crises. Bush’s response was so successful that President Obama tapped Bush’s emergency response director, Craig Fugate, to head up FEMA in 2009.
Less remarked upon was Bush’s responsibility for Florida’s security after 9-11. Hijackers in 9-11 had attended flight school in Florida, and in the aftermath of 9-11 Boca Raton was the scene of anthrax attacks. Bush actively worked to make changes on the state level that complimented federal efforts in the new Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
Combining his legislative record with his management of unknown crises, Bush has created a record of consistent, competent and reliable leadership that would serve a new president well.
In talking about integrity, consider Jeb against the wobbly front runner for the Democratic nomination, Hillary Clinton.
Bush has released all of his emails while he was governor when he declared for president. They are there for any citizen or journalist to pick over. Hillary Clinton not only used a homebrew server to transact official business, she never bothered to turn over the emails to the government and it has since required a judge to pry the emails out, subsequently revealing appalling disregard for US national security.
Bush has released 33 years of tax returns. Mrs. Clinton’s financial web between her office and the Clinton Foundation remains a subject for investigation. Finally, the transcripts for Bush’s paid speeches are available for anyone who wants them. Mrs. Clinton has yet to come up with a reason why she worked so hard to keep anyone from getting access to her addresses, and won’t release them now.
No aspect of Bush’s public persona has been more mischaracterized than his humility. In our age of celebrity, where the most outrageous and scandalous behavior invites the most attention, time honored humility is an undervalued virtue. Indeed, Donald Trump, whose success is rooted in the vulgarity of popular mass media, constantly sneers at Bush as “weak” and “low energy.” The truth is that Bush, unlike Trump was brought up with manners and a well-controlled ego. It is not a mark of weakness, but ironically perhaps of Bush’s strength. Jeb doesn’t need to be brash to be strong. For Jeb, actions speak louder than words.
Jeb Bush is man unwavering character and determination. He lost his first race for governor in 1994, a loss that might have sent others back to the private sector and a more lucrative life. But Bush came at it again in 1998. He not only won, he won handsomely with 55 percent of the vote, and he also expanded the Republican coalition to include the large Latino voting bloc in Florida, winning nearly 60 percent of the Latino vote.
In 2000, Jeb was at ground zero for the biggest political drama in modern American history in the battle of chads and Florida’s 29 electoral votes. In 2002, as payback for Bush’s tenure during the vote recount, national Democrats threw everything they had at Jeb. Both Bill Clinton and Al Gore campaigned against him, as Terry McAuliffe (now governor of VA) tried to “nationalize” the race as a referendum on George W. Bush.
A political warrior at heart, Jeb won by a bigger majority than his first race, defeating his opponent with 56 percent of the vote, again carrying a large majority of Latinos. There is no other candidate in the presidential race today that has had the national Democratic Party and the Clinton machine throw the proverbial kitchen sink at them and beat it. With so much riding on the result of November’s election, including the profound decision of appointing a new Supreme Court nominee, the GOP needs a proven fighter and vote getter as Jeb Bush.
But it may all be for naught.
The Real Clear Politics of poll averages has Bush in fourth place, trailing Marco Rubio, by seven points. The conventional wisdom is that Bush cannot win in what has always been “Bush country,” where can he prevail? And with three “governing conservatives” in the race, something will have to give to consolidate that lane and prevent the nomination of Donald Trump and the ensuing disaster to the Republican Party and conservative fortunes, perhaps for a very long time.
In 2008, faced with an economic crisis, Americans voted their hopes for a better future in the rhetoric of Barack Obama. It was a deception of epic proportions as the most polarizing and partisan Administration in American history has hobbled our economy, weakened our defense, undercut our allies and world standing, weakened the separation of powers, vastly expanded the regulatory state and dismissed elections that did not go their way, to pursue the most leftist agenda since the New Deal.
The anger and frustration borne of that bitter fruit is real. But the blame is miscast. Washington Republicans didn’t create the America of today – the Democrats did. The GOP had to fight from a losing position, first to win the House (2011) and then the Senate (2014) to again have a voice in DC. And of course activists are right that promises were made during the campaigns by Republicans that go unredeemed. But at the same time, no one understood that Barack Obama would simply dismiss the midterm results as his base didn’t come out to vote, a very provocative notion of democracy in action.
In 1994, Bill Clinton retooled the entire direction of his Administration based on the drubbing Democrats received in the midterms. Clinton ultimately signed off on capital gains tax cuts and welfare reform, two measures that, along with a flat increase in spending, helped balance the budget later in his term. In contrast, Democrats have been eviscerated in almost every level of government since Obama become president. There are more GOP office holders today than at any time since 1929. Yet the President refuses to recognize the reality of this change in circumstance and stubbornly holds out for even more progressive policies that are wholly unsupported in the Congress or among the citizenry.
It is not an excuse to angry voters but it is a reason. Jeb Bush never held a job in DC, he’s just part of a very famous family that has. But even here, this is an advantage.
As a candidate for the presidency, Jeb has seen, has few in history have first hand, the burdens and pressures, trade-offs and sacrifices of the presidency. He saw his father manage Panama and the Gulf War. The coup in Moscow and the end of the Soviet Union. He saw his brother after 9-11, in the midst of Iraq and the painful choices in Wall Street collapse. That insight is the most valuable, intangible knowledge that Jeb Bush brings to the race, and more importantly, the greatest gift to America in a troubled time.
In 2017, if not before, America is going to have to deal with an economic downturn, and create a plan to dig us out of the failed Obama economic model. There will be the constant possibility of mass casualty terror attacks on Americans abroad, or even at home. We will have to cope with a provocative China, arming man-made islands in the South China Sea, and a North Korean regime with both nuclear weapons and intercontinental missiles. We will have to manage a vastly empowered Iran, which will threaten traditional US interests from North Africa to the Arabian Peninsula.
And that’s just what we know.
What if ISIS acquires and detonates a dirty bomb or worse? What happens if there is an accidental launch of nuclear weapons between Pakistan and India? What do we do if Putin, testing the resolve of the next president, tries to infiltrate the Baltic Republics in the same manner as he did in Crimea? What if a terrorist group or foreign power, using cyber warfare, crashes whole data sectors of the US economy or is capable of turning off the power?
The world around us is harsh, hateful and unyielding. Name-calling, degradation and temperamental bullying may be satisfying, but it is not a coherent policy or course. Tested leadership successfully runs a state, not a TV game show.
So as you go into the polling booth, think long and hard. At no time since 1860 has so much been riding on a presidential election.
Vote for America.
Vote for Jeb Bush.