Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination is finished.
He will not be confirmed.
I hope that I am wrong. Indeed, nothing would give me more pleasure that to see Kavanaugh fight back and win the SCOTUS seat he is eminently qualified to hold. In a just society, represented by just lawmakers, that is what would happen. But our politics are neither just nor fair.
As a result, if Judge Kavanaugh does not withdraw, he will be defeated, either in committee or on the floor. The damage that results will be permanent, and serve as a timely marker for the utter cesspool of opportunism and hypocrisy that has engulfed our public square.
Judiciary Chairman Charles Grassley, an honorable and ethical man, who reveres the Senate as it once was, is playing checkers while the Democrats are playing chess. For the Democrat opposition, this nomination was never really about Kavanaugh, not in the sense of an honest and thorough evaluation of his record and qualifications. No, for Senate Democrats and the their activist Progressive base, the priority was to keep the swing seat on SCOTUS open by whatever means necessary, pushing off consideration of a nominee until after the midterms, when, in a “Blue Wave” Democrats would retake the majority and force Trump to nominate a less conservative candidate.
In Christine Blasey Ford, Democrats found the key to unlock all their ambitions, and Grassley, bless his institutional heart, is unwittingly playing right along, choosing the worst possible path to hear Ford’s accusations.
Since Ford came forward in person, the almost universal theme has been to “get to the bottom” of the accusations. Grandstanding Democrats are calling for the FBI to reopen Kavanaugh’s background investigation (they won’t), while even well-meaning, conservative-friendly journalists, who know Kavanaugh personally, talk earnestly about the search for a “truth” that will resolve this situation. The public hearing that Grassley scheduled for Monday the 24th is intended for this purpose, though it will only do the opposite. There will be no truth.
Ford and Kavanaugh are proxies.
The professor is the latest representative of the #MeToo movement, yet another female victim who fell prey to the sexual impulses of a man, and who has lived a life in silence enduring the scars that were inflicted. Kavanaugh, in contrast, is the embodiment of “white privilege,” the rich kid who had every advantage from birth, they guy for whom doors to elite education, job opportunities, and powerful friends were always opened. Where whatever he wanted, was there for the taking.
That’s the narrative that will play out next Monday.
The hearing will not a serious legal proceeding to weigh evidence. That opportunity evaporated when Grassley caved to Democrat demands that the testimony be public. What we will have now is the best reality TV programming available from our public representatives.
Ford’s truthfulness will be irrelevant. To recount her story personally, in her own voice – we have a good idea of what she will say from her letter to Senator Feinstein – in front of a nationally televised audience, will create its own truth. It will be compelling and powerful.
It will be the unenviable job of Judiciary Committee Republicans to create doubt about the story. 10 white men from privileged backgrounds. It’s a no-win situation for those Members.
Every assertion by the GOP, every pointed question, no matter how mild, will be viewed as an attack on Ford personally. Democrat members, including four women, will make sure of it. Ted Cruz, who sits on the Committee and is known for his tough interrogations of witnesses, could very well lose his Senate seat over his conduct next week. Indeed, the public sense of how the GOP manages this spectacle will have far-reaching repercussions well outside the hearing room into the November midterms. None of it appears positive right now.
What does Kavanaugh have in the face of all this? He can only assert his innocence, which he has already done. Mark Judge, the other person allegedly in the room at the time has already said that he too remembers nothing of it. Depend on committee Democrats to caricature the pair as two frat guys sticking together.
We have all seen that movie before.
Events such as next week’s hearing are not about truth, but the assignment of blame. In the absence of some other man coming forward, or Ford recanting her assertions, that blame will fall squarely on Kavanaugh. His record of accomplishment and distinction, the letters of praise and support he has received from dozens of women, including women he dated in high school, will account for little.
Like Clarence Thomas 27 years ago, it’s unlikely that the Senators and public will have any additional clarity with regard to Ford’s allegations than they do today. Unlike Thomas, Kavanaugh cannot respond with righteous indignation about a high-tech lynching of an upiddy white man. His “privilege” will be an anchor around his neck. After the hearing is done, it would be an act of profound political courage – not currently in great supply in the Senate – for the six Members whose votes are currently in doubt – Republicans Collins, Murkowski, and Flake, and Red state Democrats Manchin, Heitkamp, and Donnelly, to bear the stain of “ignoring charges of sexual assault” in order to confirm Kavanaugh.
Kavanaugh himself is not an automaton. He is watching a lifetime of work systematically destroyed by the Democrats. The Judge has two daughters, the oldest about to become a teenager. What has the last week done to them? Questions from Democrats at the hearing are bound to be graphic and pointed, focusing on under-age drinking and any other irresponsibility that may have occurred. Kavanaugh understands politics and he knows how to count votes. While he obviously wants to clear his name, he will have to balance that against the longer term damage to his family and career as a result of circus he will be participating in.
It is also worth considering the view of Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. McConnell never wanted Kavanagh in the first place because of the paper trail issues that ultimately vexed the Committee during the hearings. He was a good soldier for Trump and carried the water. McConnell is not wedded to the nominee, but rather to protecting the open SCOTUS seat for the GOP. If Kavanaugh withdraws, and spares the Senate the spectacle of the hearing, the best result now is for the GOP to pour all its resources into energizing GOP voters to turn out, and hope to protect the Senate majority. If successful, Trump could nominate a new candidate after the midterms.
It is hard to capture the profound damage Democrats have done here; the extremes they have been willing to go to in order to keep the Kennedy seat out of conservative hands. From the carnival antics at the hearings, to the calculated deployment of Ford only days before a committee vote.
In this regard, it is worth pointing out that Keith Ellison, a liberal congressman who has secured the Democrat nomination for Attorney General in Minnesota, has had more than one woman come forward, with corroborating medical records, alleging assault.
No Democrats are calling for an FBI investigation into Ellison.
By the 25th, if not sooner, this sorry situation will resolve itself. But it is a cautionary tale. As the Democrats blew up the filibuster in the Senate for short-term political advantage, only to see it wielded by the GOP to confirm a record number of conservative judges, so Democrats should ponder what they have wrought here. The wreckage of ruined reputations and lives is real.
What goes around, comes around.