McCain’s First “Presidential” Decision

The proliferation of rumors concerning an imminent McCain VP announcement forces an early-than-expected Duffy analysis.

The Situation:

100 days before the election and John McCain is frankly in a pickle. He faces an opponent with a superior nationwide organization, tremendous financial advantages and a highly disciplined, politically canny and cohesive management team that has devised a credible electoral strategy for a determined candidate.

In a race where McCain is the candidate of principled experience, a bipartisan reformer and a maverick of integrity,  it is an oddity of the campaign that the longer it goes on, the more diminished McCain somehow becomes in comparison to Obama. With an ever changing campaign structure, a tactical emphasis on chasing the news cycle, and without any apparent strategic plan, McCain seems more the leader of an unruly posse than the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party.

The choice of a running mate therefore is one of the last “game changers” that McCain has to shake up the race, put Obama on the defensive and keep hope alive for a Republican in the White House.

The Requirements:

Of course, “the bench” doesn’t make McCain’s task any easier this year.  If the available Republican VP candidates were a sports team, we’d call 2008 a “rebuilding year”.

The light bench is complicated by McCain’s difficult relationship with core Republican constituencies.

Unable to find a conservative candidate to unite around during the primaries, most factions are united to some degree in their conviction that McCain is not an authentic conservative for any number of real or perceived heresies.  Smoldering in resentment since McCain locked up the nomination, conservative groups have skeptically listened to a stream of platitudes of fidelity by McCain, but are seeking tangible proof of these commitments through his VP pick.

That fidelity would mean at a minimum, a candidate who would be pro-life, committed to a strong defense in the War on Terror, rejuvenating the economy through tax cuts, limiting government spending and regulation, and someone who frowned on judicial activism. Someone who has been on the enforcement side of the immigration debate would be a definite bonus to conservatives, if not Hispanics voters McCain seeks to court.

Then there is the sensitive issue of age.  Everyone knows that if elected, McCain will be the oldest first-term president in American history.  Simple verbal gaffes in the 24/7 news cycle that would otherwise be dismissed (as when Obama said there were “57 states”) serve to highlight the age issue to McCain’s detriment.

Further, McCain’s age multiplies his problems in appealing to groups outside his demographic.

The emerging narrative is that McCain, while a hero deserving of respect, is quaint and out of touch. If that narrative holds, McCain cannot win.  So in choosing a running mate, McCain needs a pick that reinforces his best qualities, and also captures the idealism that drives McCain’s reform instinct for a new generation.  It must be somebody younger, but not too young as to cede the argument that Obama is qualified by comparison.

And experience.

As a Senator, it would be beneficial to have someone with executive experience. As someone who has placed so much emphasis on his foreign policy credentials, and has seemed less interested in the details of domestic economic policy, McCain would do well to pick someone with a background or experience in economic policy or management.

And finally, and more broadly in making the pick, McCain cannot overlook the Obama phenomenon.

Obama is more than the nominee of a Party; he has in the process of the primaries, become a cultural icon. That status drives a dynamic excitement and intensity in the Obama campaign that presents a unique challenge for McCain, whose own daring exploits sadly seem routine in comparison. While McCain shouldn’t pick a candidate on “curb appeal” alone, he cannot concede the idealism narrative to the Democrats completely.

And of course, it would be nice — but not essential — for the candidate to bring a state with them given the difficult electoral map McCain faces right now.

The Candidates:

Frankly, given these requirements, there is no ideal candidate who has the proper mix of vision, experience, gravitas and charisma – to be both newsworthy and beneficial – without accepting significant downside risk.

For instance, Tom Ridge brings two successful terms as governor of swing state Pennsylvania.  He’s got a great biography as an Ivy League student who quit and volunteered for Vietnam as an enlisted man, and later served as the first Secretary of Homeland Security. He would seem to have the complete package.  But Ridge is pro choice, which is a deal-killer with conservatives.

There’s Rob Portman, an authentic conservative and former Representative from all-important Ohio, but as a former OMB Director for President Bush, he is directly tied to the current Administration’s fiscal policies, something McCain cannot risk.

And then there’s Sarah Palin. The governor of Alaska is turning heads with a take-no-prisoners conservatism that is shaking up politics in the 49th state with a compelling reform agenda. But Palin has been on the job less than two years, making it a difficult argument that she would be ready on Day #1 to take over from McCain.

Given these constraints, don’t even mention Joe Lieberman…

Still, there have been many names proposed for McCain.  Here are the most likely, in ascending order, with pros and cons detailed:

Mitt Romney: this would be the wrong candidate at the wrong time in the wrong year.

At 61, Romney brings a presidential bearing and real private sector experience to the table. No one can say that he has not done enough to heal the rifts with McCain from the primaries, and he has become a key team player since. Romney is rich, even by today’s inflated standards, funding that could be useful depending on finance rules. And Romney still has ties to Michigan, a pivotal battleground state that may be essential to McCain as Republicans lose ground in other areas.

But in many ways, Romney is the antithesis of McCain. He has changed his policy positions on key issues with reckless abandon over the years, necessitated apparently, by runs for higher political office. It remains a mystery, given this past, why conservative groups defended him so stoutly against McCain in the primaries.

And then there is the sensitive issue of religion.  Mike Huckabee trounced Romney among evangelical Christians in Iowa, based in part on representations regarding Romney’s Mormon faith. That doubt lingered through the campaign as Huckabee split the evangelical vote throughout the south in the remaining primaries.

It thus poses a difficult question for McCain going forward with Romney. When added to flip flops and potential “carpet bagger” charges in Michigan, it make Romney a less than satisfying choice.

John Thune: the “Daschle killer”.

Thune hit conservative Washington as a star from Day #1 as the candidate who had slayed then-Majority Leader Tom Daschle in 2004.  At 47, with three terms in the House and a few years in the Senate behind him, Thune has solid conservative bone fides and strong evangelical support.

The question is whether it is enough.

South Dakota is not likely to go Democrat this year. Thune does not have executive experience or any particular economic or foreign policy expertise of merit. He’s solid but not yet distinctive.  He came to Washington in the same class — and is the same age — as Obama. If McCain picks Thune, does that not imply that Obama himself is qualified to be president?

That said, Thune has a great future in the Party, and may be a contender in his own right during the next open Republican primary, but he is not the right partner for McCain in 2008.

Kay Bailey Hutchinson: A KBH selection would represent a daring leap into Obama’s backyard, a jump worthy of someone who was bombing behind enemy lines in a previous career.

As the most partisan Democrats privately seethe over their close primary battle, Obama is stuck between a rock and a hard place in keeping the Clintons off the ticket but finding a way to appeal to “gender” voters who are convinced the nomination was stolen from them.  Would any other woman on the ticket be acceptable? Or would false pandering leading to a more severe backlash?  Does a male selection close the door to these voters?

KBH might answer that question.

Unlike the Ferraro experiment in 1984, Hutchinson is an experienced legislator and leader in her own right.  She has a long history in Texas state politics and has been a successful businesswoman. Currently in her third term in the Senate, Hutchinson is ranked 4th in Republican leadership. Until now, her next political plans included a run for governor of Texas.

But the strength of her experience is weakened by some of her policy positions. Hutchinson is a moderate by Texas standards.  While she’s a supporter of drilling in ANWAR, she gets mixed reviews for her commitment to immigration control.  She supports measures on abortion such as waiting periods and parental consent, but her underlying position on the Right to Life is open to question.  Also, at 65, Hutchinson may be too much a creature of John McCain’s generation to make the broader appeal he needs.

If called upon, Hutchinson would do well, but ultimately she may not be the right mix of qualities that McCain needs to win.

Tim Pawlenty: this is where the buzz is.

Pawlenty, half way through his second term as governor of Minnesota, is a future leader in the Republican Party regardless of whether he gets the McCain nod. A son of a milk man, Pawlenty won his second term in the Republicans’ disastrous 2006 election year, and he did so in one of the most liberal states in the country.

Part of an emerging “Sam’s Club” conservatism that seeks to make Republican politics more relevant to working class voters, Pawlenty has received notice and accolades for balancing the state budget without raising taxes. He’s also an emerging “green” governor who has placed increased emphasis on ethanol as part of a solution to climate change.

But for all of his stellar ingredients, Pawlenty is the soufflé that does not rise. There are work horses and show horses, and Pawlenty is definitely in the former category. But McCain needs something more than Pawlenty’s solid record.  He needs a candidate with the gravitas for higher office that Pawlenty currently seems to lack.

Despite his success, Pawlenty has only 5 1/2 years in office and is only a year older than Obama, who can claim longer service if his Illinois state activities are included. Even with his ability to attract voters in a Democratic state, it remains unclear whether Pawlenty could help McCain carry Minnesota, where Obama has a sizeable lead.

Pawlenty, like Thune, is a solid politician and someone who has a place in the GOP’s future. 2008, however, may be one election too soon.

Judd Gregg: he doesn’t show up on anyone’s list and it’s difficult to understand why. Gregg is a scion of a New Hampshire family that has been prominent in the politics of the state for two generations.

At 61 Gregg has carved out an impressive political resume. He has served four terms in the House, two terms in the Governor’s mansion and is in his third term in the Senate. He has had exposure to state and national issues; bread and butter concerns as well as vexing foreign policy challenges.

Gregg is in many ways, a mirror of McCain. He is a reliable, traditional conservative Republican, who has consistently supported lower federal spending and lower taxes. Gregg is firmly pro-life, but has diverged from orthodoxy for his support of federal funds for stem cell research. He voted against the Federal Marriage Amendment, sure to inflame social conservatives, but did so with a libertarian streak, as he felt that this was a state and not federal issue.

Beyond the prospect of a low key and competent second in command, Gregg offers something the other candidates do not; the chance to carry a state.  New Hampshire has been good to John McCain, and he continues to run close to Obama, but has not yet taken the lead. Placing Gregg on the ticket offers McCain the possibility of recapturing the 4 electoral votes that in a close election could mean the difference between victory and defeat.

Gregg is a very solid and politically astute choice.

Carly Fiorina: the “long ball.”

There is no modern model among Republicans or Democrats for choosing a running mate from outside politics. Ross Perot’s 3rd Party bid in 1992 featured former Admiral James Stockdale as the #2, while George Wallace’s 3rd Party effort in 1968 featured General Curtis LeMay. Neither are reassuring precedents. But as Democrats shatter old stereotypes of what a nominee should be, this may be an opportunity for Republicans to do the same with the vice presidency.

There are many elements that commend a Fiorina pick to McCain. At 53, she is a corporate success story who has stood at the top of corporate America. Moreover, she made her career in an area of the economy that is the dominant sector for the future; information technology and services. In an election about pocket book issues, Fiorina would bring refreshing, first hand candor as someone who has both met a payroll and grown a business, as well as an executive who has lived through the government’s varied attempts to regulate prosperity.

A Fiorina pick would mute criticism of McCain on domestic issues, creating a partnership with distinct expertise on both foreign policy and the economy.  It would also tack nicely with McCain’s “common sense” conservatism, and provide a vivid contrast with Obama. While the Democrat is busy with rhetorical flourishes about calming seas, curing the sick and bringing the world together, a Fiorina pick would signal a non-ideological and pragmatic course to solve real world problems.

Not incidentally, a Fiorina pick would promote a second look at McCain’s candidacy, confirming him as someone willing to reach out to experts in their field, and in so doing, making his judgment fresh and relevant to today’s problems and voters.

Beyond the second look, the Fiorina pick would also offer a path for McCain to appeal to “gender voters” without having to pander to them. Fiorina would not be a “charity” pick. She’s a private sector executive whose accomplishments have been documented and whose selection would have been earned. In this way, she represents less a problem with male voters than Hillary Clinton, while potentially creating a chasm among women for Obama.

Fiorina does not come without significant challenges. Her highly publicized departure from HP remains a source of controversy, especially an evaluation of her judgment and core management skills. Also, in a time of economic difficulty for average Americans, Fiorina’s huge golden parachute will raise hackles, especially as she had previously fired 7,000 employees and presiding over a 50% devaluation in HP stock before departing the company.  Though this can be explained, the sound bite is damaging.

And the Republican Base reaction may initially be one of anxiety.  Fiorina has said publicly that she is pro-life, but beyond that, very little is known about her social views. For Republicans in general, a Fiorina pick creates a question mark about where the future of the Party may lay.  Will there be such a thing as “McCainism”, or will his potential tenure, and that of his vice president, merely be a one-election diversion from orthodoxy?  Depending on where you stand on McCain, the change is welcome or not.

With that in mind, the  saying still goes, “No guts, no glory.”

A Fiorina pick is not only a direct challenge to Obama, it is a challenge to the culture of paternalism and grievance politics that is rife in Democratic circles over women’s issues. Fiorina worked her way up to the top in the only profession more brutal than politics; corporate America. She’s experienced glass ceilings and male bias and other indignities first hand, and lived to prosper through them. Her toughness and merit based success is a narrative for tomorrow’s women that may resonate with this year’s voters.

The Selection:

Simply stated, McCain’s hand will be tipped by the timing of his announcement.

By any measure, his best political window would be after the Democratic convention and before the start of the GOP event in Minneapolis. Here, he could step on Obama’s momentum coming out of the Denver, and more closely align his choice for vice president to maximize GOP chances, based on Obama’s choice.

For instance, if Obama were himself to go with a woman, say, Kansas governor Kathleen Sebelius, McCain would do well to go with a grounded male candidate.  Here, the only real options are Gregg or Pawlenty (in that order), which would allow the GOP to contrast the Democratic ticket as too much change at once. But if Obama goes with a conservative pick to shore up his experience credentials, with Joe Biden or Evan Bayh, a female choice is a huge opening for McCain.

There is really only one reason for McCain to make his announcement significantly in advance of the Republican convention. That would be to break with the past and chose a candidate so unconventional as to need sufficient time for introduction, but also with a narrative so compelling as to dominate the news cycle and change the dynamic of the presidential race for the month of August.

That can only mean Fiorina, or, perhaps a similarly mentioned name from the business world, Meg Whitman from eBay.

Conclusion:

John McCain’s life story is literally a narrative of the best and the worst life can offer.  The long tradition of family service, the necessity of courage in combat, the importance of patience and integrity as a prisoner, the power of faith and redemption in life after adversity and  the honor and determination of public service.

For doubters, McCain is always at his best when it seems that his situation is at its worst. The Obama people should consider themselves on notice, beginning with his VP pick. Obama has written about the audacity of hope.

McCain has lived it.