Trump Meets Reality

But all for the best...
But all for the best…

When the Soviet government consolidated its authority in 1921, the communist leadership faced a dilemma. Orthodox Marxists firmly believed that once revolution of the masses catalyzed in one country, it would spread rapidly, doing away with the ruling classes and bourgeoisie structures, such as nation states. A utopian society would result.

But it didn’t work out that way.

With the 300 year old Tsarist dynasty gone, the lack of experienced people and governing institutions at home meant chaos and anarchy within Russia proper, requiring the formation of something antithetical to pure Marxism – a government. And the continued presence of capitalist countries around the world meant that the Lenin and the Soviets would have to staff a ministry that ran counter to the very essence of Marxism – Foreign Affairs.

Revolutions are founded in idealism and fueled by conceit; that if only their path is walked, the society would organize along a more natural, and more beneficial, lines. But it rarely works out that way. At some point, revolutionary utopianism must give way to practical realities of the world as it is.

Which brings us to Donald Trump.

Underestimated by everyone but his supporters, Trump rode all the way to the White House as a voice for disaffected working class and middle class Americans. These were citizens who saw their values mocked by the media, who believed they were sold out by Big Business and locked out by a self-dealing government of crony establishmentarians, dedicated to ensuring the wealth and power of an elite few, at the expense of the larger whole.

The solutions were easy and they were obvious.

  • Deport the 11 million illegal aliens that pushed wages down and build a wall to keep them out.
  • Tear up trade deals that killed American jobs and stop American companies from moving overseas for fatter profit margins.
  • Humble Washington by stripping its power, reducing its number and changing its priorities. The federal government would be made to work again, to solve problems instead of perpetuating gridlock.
  • Regulations and taxes would be reduced so the American economy would grow, and new, good-paying jobs created. Obamacare repealed with a replacement that was cheaper and better. Military spending and Veterans care would again be priorities. The budget would be in surplus and the debt reduced, without touching entitlements.
  • Foreign policy would be about the national interest. No more “cushy” deals where rich foreign nations undermined American jobs while receiving subsidized American defense. Alliances were obsolete. America would mind its own business in the world. Japan, South Korea and NATO would have to ante up, China would be confronted and Russian relations reset.

Well, so much for that.

Not quite 100 days into his presidency, Donald Trump has turned these assumptions upside down.

  • Targeting China as a currency manipulator to artificially cheapen exports at the expense of Americans products and jobs? Not really.
  • NATO as an obsolete military alliance? Not any more.
  • Minding our own business in Syria and letting the Russians do the heavy lifting? Nope.
  • The Export Import Bank of the US as a tool of crony capitalists?  Mistaken.

Governing conservatives have ample reason to smile. A large cohort of Trump’s opposition within the GOP was made up of experienced people who quickly recognized that the toxic rhetoric of the campaign, no matter how well received by Trump’s adoring base, promised disaster if enacted in office.

As POTUS found out with health care, governing is complicated, and almost never a black and white affair. No one – not even Trump – can wave a wand and make things happen.

Branding China as a currency manipulator might be deeply satisfying, but it not only conflicts with the facts, it  is also deeply intertwined with other, larger issues of trade, economics and security policy. Trump has learned that China relations are not a simple, zero sum game.

And Trump has found the value of military alliances, not just in NATO, but with Japan and South Korea. That these treaties aren’t simply a vehicle for foreigners brush off security responsibilities while focusing on killing US jobs, but rather tools to advance American policy around the world. This is a valuable Trump realization.

Syria is an abrupt about-face. The US retaliation for Assad’s use of chemical weapons against civilians flies in the face of candidate Trump and even President Trump’s positions over the last 18 months. But as is often said, someone had to do something. America is usually that last stop.

While most Americans have never heard of the EXIM bank, it has animated hard right conservatives for years. A government agency chartered during the Great Depression, EXIM provides financing and loans to US companies to help export their products. Conservatives and critics have taken aim, certain that the agency is but a form of crony capitalism were connected companies with big lobbying shops, get cushy discount loans at the expense of American taxpayers. Nothing could be further from the truth, and Trump’s embrace of EXIM is actually a solid sign that he understands how vital the agency is to promoting US exports in a deeply uneven global playing field.

The policy changes seem to have a corollary in staff who have the president’s ear.  Steve Bannon, the Svengali who navigated the final months of the campaign for Trump, and who set the early weeks of the Administration’s agenda with a very nationalist approach, seems to have been knocked down a few rungs, while the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner and economics advisor Gary Cohn are ascendant. The parlor games of White House influence will continue, but these most recent developments are welcome after a rocky start to the Trump presidency.

While governing conservatives smile knowingly, vindicated to a certain extent that Trump’s campaign platform was stuffed with unworkable rhetoric, Trump’s hard-core supporters should not despair that Trump has sold out.

Trump is not a conservative and not a Republican; at least not as those terms have been generally understood. Indeed, POTUS is the least ideological person to hold the presidency in decades.  The president’s views on a spectrum of issues do not fall in one basket.

As a former businessman, Trump intuitively understands that lower taxes and less regulation result in higher growth. As a real estate developer he knows what the courts and the environmentalists can do to a high value project. In matters of tax, budget and judiciary, Trump tends to be conservative, but not orthodox.

Trump is an American nationalist, which is not a dirty word no matter how many times liberals say so. Having pride in your nation and in your culture is not antithetical to change, it is rather, a path for pursuing change. So Trump is about law and order. He wants a strong military. He wants to take care of Veterans. He wants to stop illegal immigration and redesign legal immigration to fit our national needs. Mexico, Canada and Australia already pursue stronger policies on these issues than the US. It is not racist to control your borders. As a sovereign, it is a first responsibility.

But Trump a very typical New York liberal when it comes to entitlements, even if it is unrealistic. He deeply believes the social safety net needs to be preserved, and has shot down any proposal that seeks to modify exploding programs such as Social Security and Medicare. He also seeks an infrastructure bill that would dwarf anything President Obama ever proposed.

You do not have to agree with this agenda to identify it.

The truth is, that Trump has an enormous amount of running room if he wants to seize it. The House Freedom Caucus taught POTUS a valuable lesson in loyalty and expedience in Washington. He should take it to heart.

One of the great British Prime Ministers in the 19th century said that the UK, “did not have permanent allies, only permanent interests.” This should be Trump’s mantra.

If there is another shot at repealing and replacing Obamacare, POTUS will need a united Republican party. But by paring tax reform with an infrastructure bill, Trump might get the kind of bipartisan majority that would not have been conceivable a year ago. The Trump administration has already demonstrated what is possible within the Executive branch by just enforcing existing immigration laws, and how the regulatory bite on business can be lifted by executive action.

If Trump stays the new course, the dividends could be rich.

Who will care about obsolete alliances if other member states meaningfully contribute more?

Is trash talking the Chinese on trade as important if the Chicoms cooperate on Korea, and there is mutual understanding on the benefits and pitfalls of two-way commerce? Same goes for NAFTA.

Not every assertive action by the US need become a quagmire, and recognizing that some US government agencies actually help Americans and American companies does not mean that streamlining the bureaucracy and making it more efficient, transparent and accountable need change.

So, no.  Trump hasn’t sold out. If anything, he’s better positioned himself for success, by accommodating reality. The most crucial quality of a president (beyond actual experience) is an ability to learn from mistakes. Trump wants to succeed. That requires not failing. He’s making course corrections that  conflict with promises from the trail, but if he stays with what works and adapts accordingly, there is stronger possibility of constructive success.

In 2018 and beyond those successes will define Trump’s accomplishment and legacy.