Final Election Predictions – 2012

It is a Right, a Privilege & a Necessity

 The last hours before Americans finally go to the polls finds the political world – and the two presidential campaigns – operating in surreal parallel universes.

According to Major Garrett of National Journal, Team Obama exudes total confidence, even speculating how early the election will be called in its favor.

Obama’s team believes it will have banked so much early vote in key states as to make Romney’s Election Day vote deficit virtually impossible to make up…[The campaign said] Obama’s efforts to register 1.8 million new voters (28 percent of whom have voted early – 345,000 in the top six battleground states) and 125 million calls or face-to-to-face interactions with voters will turn the tide for Obama.”

Based on predictions so far, most of the elite media and Beltway “cognizanti” agree.

Final polls by the Economist/YouGov, Reuters/Ipsos and PPP all have Obama winning, with a margin between 294-333 Electoral Votes (EVs).

270 EVs are needed to win.

New York Times presidential polling svengali Nate Silver now says that there is an 86 percent chance that President Obama will be re-elected. The Washington Post’s quadrennial “Crystal Ball” presidential predictions contest has 13 entries with only two picking Romney as the winner.

However, Garrett notes that with equal assurance, Team Romney sees something completely different. “Romney advisers believe with biting certainty that higher GOP turnout, more enthusiasm, and a late spurt of support among independents will catapult Romney to victory.”

That sentiment is consistent with the fact that both national and state polls showing the President leading are almost all based on models that reflect 2008 voter turnout – where the Democrats outnumbered the GOP by D+7. However, in analyzing likely voters for 2012, Pew, Rasmussen and Gallup – three very different polling firms – came to roughly the same conclusion; that unlike 2008, the likely voter make up this year will be split even between the GOP and Democrats, or with a slight GOP edge.

Change the makeup and you have a massive change in the results.

And as with Obama, Romney has media acolytes. George Will believes Romney will win 317 EVs. Glenn Beck says it will be 321 in favor Romney. And even the respected sage, Michael Barone of National Review Online, has weighed in stating that Romney will win 315 EVs.

It seems the clashing parallel universes will be conclusively decided in a contest between the highly sophisticated Democratic Get Out the Vote (GOTV)  machine vs. GOP/Independent voter enthusiasm.

Prediction

The tangible evidence suggests that Team Romney’s basis for optimism is correct.

Despite the vaunted Obama election machine, early voting nationally has favored Romney 52-45 according to Gallup. In ’08 Obama led early voting 55-40.

Even in the swing states, Republicans lead in Colorado early voting, and the huge Obama margins from 08 have been cut by more than half in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. As Republicans, historically, have a greater Election Day turn out – and two surveys released yesterday indicate a GOP enthusiasm advantage of 7-8 percent – you have a key Obama election advantage that has been effectively neutered.

With that as context, I start with my prediction with my October 13th blog post, which remains valid three weeks after it was published.

Romney starts with the McCain 2008 coalition as a baseline – 21 states with 180 EVs

Indiana (11 EVs) and North Carolina (15 EVs), traditional GOP states that President Obama won barely in 2008 will return to the GOP fold. Romney is now at 206 EVs.

Florida (29 EVs), the pivotal swing state in so many elections over the last 20 years, will return to the GOP fold this year. Early voting totals are down significantly for Democrats, and recent polling has shown a slight, but consistent Romney advantage. Romney is now at 235 EVs

Virginia (13EVs), will be tight, but Romney will prevail.

Polls in Virginia close at 7pm, so the Old Dominion will be the first state to bear out which theory about the election is true.

Most official polls give a small advantage to Obama, with polling samples based on 2008 turnout models. If Romney wins here, it will be the first stake in the heart regarding the efficacy of using 2008 turnout models as 2012 samples.

Early voting in heavily Democratic areas of Arlington, Alexandria, Richmond and Norfolk, are way down from 2008 highs, the first sign that the state is not secure for Obama. With Virginia added to the list, Romney is at 248 EVs.

Wisconsin (10EVs) is a “disruptive” state for Romney, eating into Obama’s core coalition.

Romney benefits here since Wisconsin was largely taken for granted by Democrats, and thus escaped the Obama media onslaught of negative ads against the GOP nominee that ruined the former Massachusetts governor in other swing states over the summer.

Second, having just been hyper-mobilized and micro-targeted in the gubernatorial recall election last June, the GOP infrastructure to turn out the vote should be alive and well. That turnout in June gave Republican Walker a seven point victory and an R+1 turnout advantage.

If the GOP turns out in Recall vote numbers, and if the sadly normal voting fraud shenanigans of the Democrats in Madison and Milwaukee (due to same day voting without an ID requirement) remain manageable, Wisconsin will take its place in Romney’s coalition. Romney is now at 258 EVs, 12 shy of victory.

New Hampshire (4 EVs). Obama won here by nine points in 2008.

However, the most recent poll has New Hampshire as a pick ’em race with Romney running away with Independents, the key to winning New Hampshire. The GOP has deployed serious money here and in a sign of its importance, New Hampshire will be Romney’s last stop tonight. With New Hampshire, Romney is now at 262 EVs, eight short of victory.

Colorado (9 EVs). The GOP enjoyed a registration advantage to begin with, and this is the one state where the GOP has surpassed Team Obama in early voting. Romney rallies here were among the biggest of the campaign season, demonstrating the intangible enthusiasm that Team Romney is banking on.

With Colorado in his column, Romney is at 271 EVs and is officially elected the 45th President of the United States of America.

Wild Cards

Pennsylvania (20 EVs). This is the “game changer.” Safely in Democratic hands nationally since Bush 41 in 1988, the state has been on every GOPer’s wish list since, but to no avail.

It is like Charlie Brown and the football.

But this year may be different.

Economically, Pennsylvania should be open to a Republican “change” argument. Unlike unemployment generally in the swing states (Ohio in particularly) joblessness in Pennsylvania has gone up almost a full point since April, to 8.2%, which is above the national average. In addition, Obama administration hostility to the coal industry is well known, and the new found environmentalist enthusiasm to regulate “fracking” for natural gas – which has the potential to transform the Pennsylvania economy – is also an issue.

Like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania was considered a lock, and was thus not subjected to the Obama negative ad blitz, so Pennsylvania voters came to the last weeks of the election relatively fresh. The first real view Pennsylvanian’s got of the race was in the debates, particularly the first debate. Net plus to Romney. And since Pennsylvania does not have early voting, more than 90 percent of the state will show up on Election Day. Another plus for the GOP.

Republican Senate candidate Tom Smith, who is challenging incumbent Senator Robert Casey, has had the airwaves pretty much to himself  (as Casey dismissed the opposition as token) and has now drawn to within 5 points. Late arriving GOP money and a visit by Romney himself (30,000 person, overflow crowd) show that the Republicans are serious.

It is a distinct possibility that in a political shock wave, Pennsylvania will flip this year. Romney would be at 291 EVs. The implications of a Republican win in Pennsylvania are so significant that Team Romney could afford to lose Wisconsin – and not even care about Ohio -and still win with 281 EVs.

Ohio (18 EV) has been the enduring enigma of the campaign. Both sides are heavily invested here.

The Obama campaign has benefited from the Detroit auto bailout in a state where 1 in 8 jobs are dependent on the auto industry. Team Obama also buried Romney in a tidal wave of negative advertising this summer, the impacts of which seem to be longer lasting.

Romney dumped money and attention in the state, made a strong play in the eastern part of the state stressing Obama’s opposition to coal, and the GOP has done better in early voting that 08, not eliminating the Democratic advantage, but making the race more competitive for the actual day-of voters tomorrow, where there is a traditional GOP advantage.

All that said, I have a nagging doubt that Romney will come up just a bit short in Ohio. It was not a friendly place for him during the primaries, and he has never really led here during the general election. Edge to Obama here.

Nevada (6 EVs) and Iowa (6 EVs). Demographics in Nevada strongly favor President Obama, with the support of the Harry Reid machine. I think Nevada goes to Obama.

Iowa will be closer, but with low unemployment and a healthy state economy, it would seem as if Iowa goes to Obama as well.

Presidential Prediction Summary

Romney wins by taking Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Colorado. Of the remaining states, Pennsylvania offers the most intriguing addition to Romney’s coalition and represents a game changer in the Electoral College.

Wins – in declining order of probability – in Ohio, Iowa and Nevada. I do not believe Michigan or Minnesota will ultimately be in play.

Range: Romney 271 to 291 EVs. Popular vote 50-51.5 percent.

Senate Prediction Summary

Any hope for the GOP to win control of the Senate will be on Romney’s coattails. GOP will likely pick up three seats in Montana, Nevada and North Dakota on the strength of the candidates and local politics. Wins in Virginia and Wisconsin will be reliant on how big Romney’s margin is, and whether he can bring the Senate candidates along. That takes the next GOP caucus to 49 seats.

The sledding gets hard from there. The implosion of GOP Senate candidates in Indiana and Missouri killed two easy wins for the Republicans. To win a tie (where a VP Ryan would provide the tie breaking vote) the GOP needs to win a race in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Connecticut and/or Florida. A very tall order given the margins separating the candidates now.

Most likely outcome – continued Democratic control.

House Prediction Summary

The GOP will continue in the majority in the next Congress. The current breakdown is 241 R-194 D. The GOP will return with between 230-240 seats.

Final Thoughts

I have been posting on this election for more than a year. Whoever is president on January 20th will face perhaps the most vexing challenges in modern American history. A debt crisis and economic stagnation at home. A political gridlock and a sovereign debt crisis in Europe. Political and sectarian chaose in the Middle East. A nuclearizing Iran. A rising China.

We have Americans, neigbors, friends and family, serving and dying overseas.

There has rarely been such a combination of complex and consequential issues at any one time. For that reason, I remain convinced that this is the most important election since 1860.

Every one of us has a stake in the future that the president will lead us to after Janauary 20th . Every vote tomorrow is both essential and crucial.

This is your future.

This is our time.

Be part of history.

Make a choice and cast a ballot.

May God Bless America.